First Africa-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum takes place September 1-3 in Barbados
Since the beginning of this year, the increasingly complicated international environment and the weakening of the global economic recovery, as well as the sporadic but multiple local outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic have had a serious impact on development. economy of China.
Affected by adverse internal and external factors, China’s economic performance in the second quarter was less than ideal than expected, leading to negative rhetoric against the Chinese economy in some media. In this case, I would like to share some views on the Chinese economy and its prospects:
First, the Chinese economy managed to grow in the second quarter despite downward pressures. In the second quarter of this year, the impacts of a new round of COVID outbreaks and other unexpected factors sharply increased downward pressure on the Chinese economy, and major economic indicators fell in April.
However, the Chinese government responded with resolute and swift action. We put stable growth at the top of the agenda, resisted massive stimulus, worked to accelerate defined policies, and introduced and implemented a set of policies to stabilize the economy. The effects appeared immediately. In May, the decline in the main economic indicators slowed down.
In June, the economy stabilized and rebounded. The main indicators recovered fairly quickly and returned to positive territory. As a result, the economy recorded positive growth in the second quarter. China’s first-half gross domestic product (GDP) was 56.264.2 billion yuan, up 2.5 percent year on year at constant prices. In terms of specific economic indicators, industrial production has been steadily recovering and the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, or 3.2% of more than in May. The service industries production index also rose from -5.1% to 1.3%. Total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded from -6.7% to 3.1% in June, showing improving market sales and rapid growth in retail sales of basic goods.
Exports increased by 22%, 6.7% more than the previous month. By ensuring stable supply and price in the market, focusing on grain and energy production, and overcoming the effects of imported inflation, consumer prices are also generally stable and the job has improved.
Second, China’s economy is expected to gradually recover and maintain steady growth. The risk of stagflation in the global economy is on the rise these days, raising concerns about the instability and uncertainty of China’s economic growth. However, the Chinese economy has strong resilience and great potential, and the fundamentals that support China’s long-term economic growth remain unchanged. With the implementation of a series of policies and measures aimed at stabilizing growth, China’s economic performance is expected to gradually improve. First, a big economy like China still has enormous resilience.
We should be aware of the enormous size of the Chinese economy and its advantages of having a strong material base and a huge domestic market. Second, the potential for demand recovery is significant. The Chinese government is determined to stabilize investment, accelerate the issuance and use of special purpose bonds, accelerate the construction of major projects and encourage infrastructure investment. We expect the consumption recovery to continue as offline consumer services resume and government policies aimed at stimulating consumption take effect.
Moreover, China’s foreign trade has maintained great resilience. In May, China’s total import and export volume grew 9.5% year-on-year, up 9.4% from the previous month; and 14.3% in June, 4.8% more than in May. Third, there is a concrete basis for production to rebound. Following the steady resumption of production, industrial and supply chains have been gradually smoothed, and the promotion effects of key industries such as automobiles and electronics will further strengthen. And the service industry went from a decline to an increase in June as the pandemic situation improved.
In addition, the promising recovery of the transport industry will also be of great help for the further recovery of production. Fourth, innovation will give new impetus to economic growth. Under the pandemic, traditional industries have accelerated their transition and expansion towards digitalization and smartening, while new industries continue to develop steadily and rapidly. Fifth, China’s macroeconomic policies are consistent and precise. The positive effects of policies such as large-scale tax refunds, the issuance and use of special purpose bonds, and increased financial support for production will emerge, which will contribute to recovery and steady economic growth.
Third, China’s economy is deeply integrated with the global economy, and opening up is one of China’s core national policies. China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development. Affected by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, the global industrial chain and supply chain are disrupted. As a result, many countries are stuck in multiple food and energy crises. Rising prices forced major economies to tighten economic policies and pushed the global economy into substantial risk of stagflation. China, as the largest developing country in the world, has great development potential and can certainly provide strong impetus for global economic recovery.
China will deepen high-level opening-up, maintain its commitment to free trade and fair trade, and help keep the two wheels of multilateral and regional trade cooperation running in parallel. Continuous efforts will be made to foster a world-class market-oriented business environment governed by a sound legal framework, and ensure foreign companies equal access to unlimited sectors in accordance with law in order to achieve mutual benefits within the framework of fair competition. China stands ready to strengthen international cooperation against COVID-19 and wants to make its COVID control measures more targeted and well-calibrated in a bid to ensure security against the pandemic. We will regularly optimize visa issuance and COVID testing policies and continue to resume and increase international passenger flights in an orderly manner, and prudently advance overseas trade and cross-border travel for labor services. to better promote China’s personnel exchanges and cooperation with the world.
During the first half of this year, bilateral trade between China and Iran increased dramatically, cementing China’s position as Iran’s top trading partner. We believe that the steady recovery and growth of the Chinese economy will provide more opportunities for countries around the world, including Iran. In the second half of this year, China will hold a number of exhibitions such as the 7th China-Eurasia Expo, the 22nd China International Investment and Trade Fair, the 132nd Canton Fair and the 5th Expo. International Import Company from China, which are great chances for Iranian merchants to know more about Chinese market and carry out cooperation with China. China will actively implement the Global Development Initiative, and all countries in the world, including Iran, are welcome to benefit from China’s economic development, promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation through to greater openness and cooperation in trade, investment and other areas. In this way, we can collectively build a community with a shared future for humanity.
From our partner Tehran Times
