Air freight up 7.7% in August compared to 2019, but capacity falls short of demand
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its August 2021 data for global air cargo markets, showing demand continued its strong growth trend, but pressure on capacity is mounting.
As comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are skewed by the extraordinary impact of Covid-19, unless otherwise stated, all IATA comparisons below relate to August 2019, which followed a demand pattern. normal.
• Global demand, measured in freight tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 7.7% compared to August 2019 (8.6% for international operations). Overall growth remains strong compared to the long-term average growth trend of around 4.7%.
• The pace of growth has slowed slightly compared to July, which saw demand increase by 8.8% (compared to pre-Covid-19 levels).
• The recovery of cargo capacity paused in August, down 12.2% compared to August 2019 (-13.2% for international operations). Month-over-month, capacity was down 1.6% – the biggest drop since January 2021.
Economic indicators
Economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth, but are slightly weaker than in previous months, indicating that global manufacturing growth has peaked:
• The August manufacturing component of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 51.9, indicating a short-term increase in demand if these orders are shipped by air. This is down from 54.4 in July.
• The August new export orders component of the PMI was supportive of air cargo, although less supportive than previous months. The expansion continued globally, but there was a contraction in emerging economies.
• The inventory-to-sales ratio remains low ahead of the year-end peak retail season. This is positive for air cargo, but other capacity constraints put this at risk.
“Air cargo demand had another strong month in August, up 7.7% from pre-Covid levels. Many economic indicators point to a strong year-end peak season. International travel “being still heavily depressed, there are fewer passenger planes offering hold capacity for cargo. And supply chain bottlenecks could intensify as companies continue to ramp up production.” , said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.
August regional show
African airlines saw their international cargo volumes increase by 33.9% in August, the largest increase of any region. Investment flows along the Africa-Asia route continue to drive regional results with volumes on the route up 26.4% compared to two years ago. International capacity decreased by 2.1%.
Asia Pacific airlines saw their international air cargo volumes increase by 3.0% in August 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This is a slowdown in demand compared to the 4.4% expansion of the previous month. Demand is affected by slower growth momentum in key business indicators in Asia, and by congested supply chains, particularly on intra-Asia and Europe-Asia routes. International capacity is significantly limited in the region, down 21.7% from August 2019.
North American Carriers posted an 18% increase in international freight volumes in August 2021 compared to August 2019. New export orders and demand for faster shipping times are supporting North American performance. Downside risk related to capacity constraints is high; international cargo capacity remains limited and many key air cargo hubs are reporting severe traffic congestion, including Los Angeles and Chicago. International capacity decreased by 6.6%.
European Carriers saw a 6% increase in international freight volumes in August 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This matched July’s performance. Manufacturing activity, orders and long lead times from suppliers continue to support air cargo demand. International capacity decreased by 13.6%.
Middle East carriers saw a 15.4% increase in international cargo volumes in August 2021 compared to August 2019, an improvement from the previous month (13.4%). The major Middle East-Asia trade lanes continue to show strong performances. International capacity decreased by 5.1%.
latin american Carriers reported a 14% decline in international cargo volumes in August compared to the 2019 period, which was the weakest performance of any region. Capacity remains significantly constrained in the region, with international capacity down 27.1% in August, the largest drop of any region.
